By Pablo Iacopino
Telecoms is still a growth industry in most regions of the world, particularly for the mobile sector, and assessing market perspectives and quantifying growth opportunities will be critical to carving out a piece of the revenue growth over the next 5 years.
China, India and Brazil will present the greatest growth opportunities
According to Analysys Mason’s forecast report, Global telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013–2017, the global market for telecoms services generated retail revenue of USD1.54 trillion in 2012, of which around two-thirds was from developed markets – North America (NA), Western Europe (WE), Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) – and around one-third from emerging markets – Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP), Latin America (LATAM), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
The USA was the largest market (USD378 billion), followed by China (USD151 billion), Japan (USD133 billion), Brazil (USD61 billion) and Germany (USD53 billion).
We forecast that telecoms retail revenue worldwide will grow at a 1.7% CAGR during 2012–2017, with growth in mobile (3.2%) more than offsetting a decline in fixed (–0.6%).
Mobile handset data and fixed and mobile broadband will be the most important revenue growth areas, driven by higher data usage and increased penetration of smartphones and broadband services. However, we forecast that mobile voice revenue will grow in emerging markets because many countries still have unserved customers.
Revenue in emerging markets will grow at a CAGR of 5.3% during 2012–2017, which will more than offset the decline in WE (–1.3%), while revenue will be nearly stable in CEE (–0.2%), DVAP (–0.3%) and NA (+0.2%).
Around two-thirds of global revenue growth will come from Emerging Asia–Pacific, and around 20% from Latin America (see Figure 1). Three countries will account for about 60% of global revenue growth – China (40%), India (12%) and Brazil (8%).
Prospects for telecoms revenue growth dramatically vary by geographical region In developed markets, the revenue mix is changing in line with the evolution of consumer behaviour, and the greatest growth opportunity will come from mobile handset data. We forecast that smartphones will account for around 84% of total mobile handsets in DVAP in 2017, and about 75% in NA and WE. In the enterprise segment, M2M and cloud are gaining momentum but their market share of total retail revenue is still small compared with core services.
In emerging markets, telecoms operators will continue to benefit from the growth of mobile penetration and rising GDP per capita that will increase telecoms service spending in all four regions. Improved mobile connectivity will also stimulate usage of data services, but mobile voice will remain predominant (45% share of total retail revenue in 2017) because fixed infrastructure will continue to be poor. EMAP will overtake WE by 2017, becoming the second-largest region in terms of retail revenue after NA.
To find out more, Analysys Mason’s Global Telecoms Forecasts is a comprehensive source of detailed fixed and mobile forecasts for eight geographical regions and at a global level. The forecasts cover a 5-year period from 2013 to 2017 and are backed by historical data and estimates for 2008 to 2012. Forecasts are updated twice a year in order to include the last quarterly data and all the changes in the macroeconomic, competitive and regulatory framework. Link to article online: http://www.analysysmason.com/About-Us/News/Insight/Global-telecom-forecasts-Apr2013/
About the author and Analysys Mason
Pablo Iacopino is Analyst at Analysys Mason.
Analysys Mason is a global consultancy and research company specialising in telecoms, media and technology (TMT). Our clients in the TMT sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, our consultants have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real-world results for clients around the world. In terms of our research, the world’s leading network operators, vendors, regulators and investors subscribe to our research and rely on our insight to inform their decision making.